In February 2026, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that from May 1, China would grant zero-tariff treatment to 53 African nations—all except Eswatini, which maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan. The move comes as China-Africa trade reached US$348 billion in 2025, up 17.7% from the previous year, with Chinese exports to Africa totaling $225 billion (up 25.8%) against imports of just $123 billion (up 5.4%). This widening trade deficit underscores the urgency of policies to support African exports to China.
Beyond trade facilitation and diplomacy amid great-power rivalry, the policy carries two probable effects, according to analysts: it could incentivize cross-country export cooperation within Africa, but it risks allowing stronger economies to capture most gains at the expense of weaker ones.
Evolution of China's Trade Preferences
China's Africa-specific trade preferences have evolved through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, established in 2000, alongside China's own WTO integration since 2001. Since 2005, African least developed countries (LDCs)—low-income nations with severe structural impediments—have enjoyed zero-tariff access on 100% of tariff lines. This restricted benefits to about 33 countries, excluding middle-income exporters like South Africa, which faced tariffs of 10–25% on fruits, wine, and processed foods.
Research on earlier preferences shows mixed results. Economist Adam Minson estimated that the 2005 LDC tariff-free arrangements brought some countries as little as an additional US$100,000 annually. My own PhD research found no significant export impact by 2009. More recently, economists Zhina Sun and Ehizuelen Michael Mitchell Omoruyi found that the policy promoted diversification of manufacturing exports and regional trade but had little effect on agriculture and mining.
A recurring recommendation has been to extend equal tariff treatment across African regional blocs like the East African Community, Southern African Customs Union, and Economic Community of West African States. Xi's February reforms shift in this direction.
Incentive for Regional Cooperation
By extending zero tariffs to nearly all African countries, China has neutralized a distortion in its earlier policy. Previously, investors and producers had incentives to locate export production in LDCs to secure tariff-free access, but LDCs often face barriers like unreliable electricity and poor infrastructure. The new regime puts LDCs at a disadvantage by removing their special status, but it opens another door: production decisions can now leverage cross-country and intra-regional supply chains based on comparative advantage, rather than tariff minimization.
Lowering tariffs for more developed economies may enable African entrepreneurs to work across borders without facing different trade barriers by locality, supporting Africa's own trade integration agenda. China has also signaled expanded trade facilitation measures, including upgraded “green lanes” for African imports—faster customs clearance, streamlined phytosanitary procedures (e.g., pre-approval for Kenyan avocado exporters), and greater investment in training and logistics. A dedicated China-Africa trade facilitation hub in Changsha, Hunan province, aims to centralize expertise and industries.
These steps align with broader trends in China's industrial overcapacity reshaping global trade, which pressures Asian economies but also creates opportunities for African exporters.
Risk of Uneven Gains
There is a risk that export production will concentrate in more developed countries like South Africa, Morocco, and Kenya, which are better positioned to expand exports. In contrast, LDCs will continue to struggle with constructing efficient trade-related infrastructure (telecommunications, electricity, port connectivity), producing at export scale, and meeting compliance standards such as fruit size and color consistency.
China's policy change calls for Africa's frontier exporters to build trade capacity. The outcome will depend on whether African nations can coordinate regionally to ensure that benefits are shared, rather than captured by a few. As global economic institutions reassess state-led growth models, China's approach to Africa offers a test case for how preferential trade can either deepen or mitigate inequality.
