President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a stark warning to airlines, insurers, and foreign governments: Russian airspace will become "de facto closed" as Ukrainian drones increasingly operate over the country. While Kyiv insists it does not target civilian aircraft, the message is clear—carriers flying to Moscow, St. Petersburg, or other major hubs must now factor in the risk of drone incursions.
"The safe days in Russia's skies are over," Zelensky said, adding that Ukrainian drones will operate "on a scale that has to be taken into account." The statement has been interpreted in Moscow as a direct threat to commercial aviation. President Vladimir Putin condemned it as "state terrorism."
Disruptions become routine
Shutdowns of Russian commercial airports due to drone and missile attacks are nothing new; they have been a recurring feature of the Ukraine war since the spring of 2022. Moscow's four main airports—Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, and Zhukovsky—along with St. Petersburg's Pulkovo, are strictly civilian facilities, but their proximity to military airfields and key infrastructure makes them vulnerable to drone swarms.
Between February 2023 and May 2025, Russian airports activated emergency "Carpet" (Kovyor) protocols at least 366 times. These protocols, designed to clear airspace when an unauthorized object is detected, have forced rolling cancellations, terminal evacuations, and passengers being directed to shelters. Regional hubs such as Kazan, Saratov, and Sochi have also been affected, and in one notable incident, 13 southern airports halted operations simultaneously after a drone struck an air navigation facility in Rostov-on-Don.
For international carriers, the disruptions have become a logistical nightmare. Around 60 foreign airlines maintain service to Russia, including Emirates, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, and flydubai from the Gulf; Turkish Airlines and Pegasus Airlines with extensive networks from Turkey; and major Chinese carriers such as Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern. Regional operators like El Al and Royal Jordanian also fly, as do airlines from Serbia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan. Even African carriers like EgyptAir and Ethiopian Airlines maintain routes.
These airlines must weigh the commercial benefits of serving Russia against the operational chaos and reputational risks. The closure of Russian airspace to Western carriers since February 2022 has already redrawn flight paths, forcing longer routes for many international flights. Now, the threat of drone attacks adds another layer of uncertainty.
Russia's own aviation sector remains heavily dependent on these foreign connections. Aeroflot, Pobeda, Rossiya, S7, Ural, Azimuth, Nordwind, and Utair operate extensive domestic and international networks, but they cannot replace the lost Western traffic. Moscow's airports handle between 1,500 and 1,800 flights per day, while St. Petersburg sees 400 to 500—figures that underscore the scale of potential disruption.
Ukraine's strategy is clear: by raising the cost of war for ordinary Russians, Kyiv hopes to demoralize the public and pressure the Kremlin into negotiations. Zelensky has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, but Putin has refused to talk, dismissing Ukraine's drone campaign as terrorism.
The escalation carries risks for Ukraine as well. Russia has developed a jet-powered version of the Geran drone, the Geran-3, which is faster than Ukrainian interceptors, and Moscow has intensified strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, including energy facilities in Odesa and weapons storage sites near Kyiv. The tit-for-tat attacks show no sign of abating.
For the international community, the implications extend beyond the battlefield. The closure of Russian airspace to many carriers has already forced airlines to reroute, adding hours to flights between Europe and Asia. If Ukraine follows through on Zelensky's warning, the skies over Russia could become even more hazardous, potentially prompting more airlines to suspend services. The refinery strikes that have crippled Russia's fuel system are a reminder of how vulnerable its infrastructure has become.
As the war grinds on, the question is not whether Ukraine will attack civil aviation—it has repeatedly said it will not—but whether the risk of collateral damage will force airlines to ground their flights. The answer may determine whether Russia's skies remain open to the world or become a no-fly zone in all but name.
