From Tokyo, the war on Iran waged by the United States and Israel is reshaping how Japan views its most important security partner. The conflict has triggered multidimensional shifts that go far beyond energy prices and global stagflation. For Japan, a key US ally in the Indo-Pacific, the question is no longer just about economic pain—it is about whether Washington can still be trusted to lead.
Japanese media and researchers are increasingly vocal in their criticism. Public opinion polls conducted by major outlets from March to April show that between 75% and 86% of respondents do not support the US-Israeli attacks. This is not a mild disapproval; it is a sharp rebuke of what many see as President Donald Trump's unilateral declaration of war, launched without international consensus or clear evidence of Iran's nuclear ambitions. The absence of a just cause, a coherent strategy, and reliable allies—leaving only raw military force—has led many to question America's qualifications as a guardian of the international order.
Economic and Strategic Fallout
The immediate driver of this discontent is the direct impact on Japanese households and businesses. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent crude oil and electricity prices soaring, while stock prices and the yen have tumbled. These losses are tangible, and they fuel a broader critique that American unilateralism is harming Japan's national interests. This sentiment is not unique to Japan; it echoes across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
But the concerns go deeper. Some Japanese researchers argue that the redeployment of US military assets—such as THAAD and Patriot missile systems from South Korea and Marine Corps personnel from Japan—to the Middle East is creating a dangerous power vacuum in East Asia. This weakens deterrence against North Korea and China, a point underscored by analysts who see the US focus on Iran as a distraction from the region's real threats. As one expert noted, the shift raises the risk of Japan being dragged into conflicts it did not choose, especially if the Trump administration demands cooperation on missile production or the dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces to the Strait of Hormuz.
These dynamics are reviving long-standing anxieties about the passive nature of the US-Japan alliance. Critics warn that Tokyo may be forced to exercise its right to collective self-defense in ways that serve Washington's interests, not Japan's. The fear is not hypothetical; it is rooted in the pattern of US demands during previous Middle Eastern wars.
Trust in the US vs. Trust in Trump
A former Japanese diplomat with decades of experience—from the 1991 Gulf War to the 2003 Iraq War—draws a crucial distinction. In past conflicts, US presidents took care to explain the necessity of military action to the American public and, at a minimum, sought a veneer of international legality. The 1991 Gulf War had a UN Security Council resolution; the 2003 Iraq War, however flawed, was justified by a 1990 resolution authorizing force against Iraq. This allowed Washington to secure allied support.
The current administration, by contrast, lacks that spirit of lawfulness. Japanese government officials, who still remember those earlier precedents, are increasingly separating their trust in the United States as a long-term partner from their trust in the Trump administration. The two are not the same. The Trump team's approach, driven more by domestic political pressures—inflation, the Epstein documents, and the upcoming midterm elections—than by strategic coherence, is eroding the foundation of the alliance.
As the war drags on, Tokyo faces a delicate balancing act. It must manage the immediate economic fallout while reassessing its security posture in a region where US commitments are being tested. The Iran conflict prompts Indo-Pacific nations to reassess nuclear energy and security postures, and Japan is no exception. Meanwhile, the US-Japan missile drills turn the Philippines into a forward base in Pacific rivalry, highlighting the shifting geometry of deterrence.
For now, the view from Tokyo is clear: the war on Iran has not only damaged confidence in the current US administration but also raised fundamental questions about the reliability of the alliance itself. Whether this is a temporary rift or a permanent shift will depend on how Washington rebuilds trust—and whether it can do so before the next crisis in the Indo-Pacific.
