When the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, and Iran retaliated by targeting Gulf Arab states, I closely monitored social media accounts from the region. As a researcher of Middle East politics with a focus on the Gulf, my feeds are filled with people living there—including Western migrants, or as they often call themselves, expats.
To my surprise, many posted the same refrain: “It is safe and normal here.” This was no trivial claim—these messages came as the countries they lived in came under attack. Yet the attitudes they exhibited reflect a long-cultivated strategy by Gulf Arab regimes to instill in foreign residents a sense of security, aspiration for the lifestyle on offer, and loyalty to the state that provides it.
Expats as Ambassadors of Normalcy
The expats’ reactions exposed the role foreign residents and influencers play in advancing a particular understanding of “normality.” Not only do they accept authoritarian rule in the Gulf, but they actively push messages that portray insecurity elsewhere. A viral trend in the UAE, replicated across other Gulf countries, featured influencers responding to “Aren’t you scared?” with imagery of ruling family members and messages like: “No, because I know who protects us.” A much-publicized walk in Dubai Mall by the UAE president reinforced this paternalistic framing of security.
These regimes have cultivated an image designed to attract global connectivity, foreign capital, and flows of people and goods. The UAE, especially Dubai, has become a symbol of tax-free residency and luxury tourism. Qatar has established itself as a reliable gas exporter and world-class mediator. Saudi Arabia has launched a sweeping reform project recasting national identity and the kingdom’s global role in championing “moderate Islam.” Bahrain has worked since independence to become a regional banking hub. These state-building processes thrived under the security umbrella of US and other Western military bases across the Middle East.
By directing global attention to threats such as Iran, Gulf regimes forged a strong sense of domestic normality. But recent years have seen a less reliable US regional policy, prompting Gulf states to explore alternatives. Without renouncing deeper engagement with the US, they have welcomed cooperation with other powers, such as China, and even explored closer ties with Israel and a modus vivendi with Iran. As Gulf States Rethink US Security Guarantee as Iran Conflict Strains Economies, the delicate balance is under pressure.
Controlling the Narrative
Gulf Arab regimes possess robust censorship apparatuses and broad national security laws that penalize content deemed to “cause panic” or “disturb public order.” Saudi authorities were swift to remind residents that “photography serves the enemy,” banning unofficial sharing of war damage. The UAE threatened severe sentences for posting negative messages. Reports indicate more than 300 people were detained in Qatar alone for posting the wrong content. Heightened security concerns exposed Western expats to coercive practices typically reserved for political dissidents.
Some posts attempted to divert attention from the threat of war by claiming to feel safer under missile attacks in Dubai and Doha than “after 9 pm” in London or Manchester. Others preferred missile attacks to being “bombed by 50% taxes.” These comments mimic narratives pushed by far-right movements in the West around crime, taxation, and immigration.
After the initial shock, many influencers returned to their old form of messaging, not posting about the war and focusing on showing their privileged “everyday” lives. This pattern underscores how expats and influencers embody the normality Gulf regimes seek to project.
Having invested efforts in insulating their domestic projects from external threats through political accommodation with neighbors, including Iran, Gulf leaders may now pursue different strategies. Some, like Bahrain, remain hostile to Iran. Others, including Saudi Arabia, are more nuanced, looking to ensure regional security. But for regimes and expats alike, this is a time of reckoning for the parameters sustaining “normality” in the Gulf.
