Washington, DC – The Democratic Party’s decisive victories in the November 3 midterm elections have sharply curtailed President Donald Trump’s domestic authority, pushing him into lame-duck status. The incoming Congress is expected to obstruct his legislative agenda and intensify oversight of the Iran war, but analysts warn that a politically cornered president may seek to reassert power abroad, including through renewed military action against Tehran.
Steven Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a Singapore-based strategic consultancy, told Asia Times that the war’s trajectory will be hard to change. Trump campaigned against “forever wars,” but “it’s hard to get out of them,” Okun said, noting that the president retains broad foreign policy powers despite losing Congress.
Democratic majorities can subpoena officials, launch investigations, and scrutinize the war’s conduct and cost. Vice President JD Vance cited the conflict as “the reason we lost” the midterms, while Trump acknowledged that high gas prices contributed to the defeat. The war has driven energy prices up, compounded inflation frustrations, and dangerously depleted US munitions stockpiles.
A president between diplomacy and threats
Trump has veered between offering Tehran a settlement and threatening overwhelming force. Before the vote, he claimed Iran wanted a deal “as soon as possible.” But on Thursday, he warned he might “destroy the rest” of Iran, adding that the public would “know soon enough” if he decided to act.
Military action has continued behind the rhetoric. US officials acknowledged limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, on November 2, the eve of the midterms. Early Saturday, Iranian media reported two more missiles hitting the island, though their origin and damage were unconfirmed.
Trump’s apocalyptic language has raised the specter of a nuclear strike. He has repeatedly threatened to erase Iran’s modern statehood, warning that failure to meet US terms could trigger strikes so devastating they would require at least “25 years” of reconstruction. Such threats carry legal implications: a September UN report found reasonable grounds to believe earlier US attacks on a school and sports facility in Iran constituted war crimes.
“Another reason for escalation would be personal and legacy-related; he would not want to be remembered for a failed or forever war,” said Nirmal Ghosh, former US bureau chief of Singapore’s Straits Times. That calculus could make Trump reluctant to end the war without a decisive triumph.
The timing adds urgency. Democrats won’t control Congress until January, leaving Trump nearly two months to conduct new strikes before they can wield investigative and purse powers. Even then, their ability to constrain executive military decisions may be limited.
“I don’t think there’s much that Democrats can do in Congress to stop Trump if he wants to further escalate the war,” said Michael Cohen, a nonresident senior fellow at the Stimson Center, recalling how Democratic victories in 2006 failed to prevent George W. Bush’s troop surge in Iraq.
That precedent lends weight to warnings from Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who said the administration had briefed lawmakers on possible renewed operations against Iran. Though officials presented it as short-term, Murphy called the plan “insane,” warning it risked spiraling into a wider war and causing “devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.” He cited reports of potential strikes on civilian infrastructure, which would violate international law.
Pressure for escalation may also come from Israel. Joe Kent, who resigned as director of the US National Counterterrorism Center over the war, claims Israeli military actions could provoke Iranian retaliation against US forces, dragging Washington deeper into conflict. “Our troops right now are being used by the Israelis as bait to drag us back into this war,” Kent said, alleging Israel seeks US participation in regime change against Tehran.
Cohen argued that Washington should abandon the quest for a decisive military outcome. “The goal of the war should be to end the war,” he said, adding that prolonged hostilities offer no strategic benefit and destabilize the region. For Asian allies, the stakes are high: Iran’s Hormuz toll plan could disrupt energy flows, while the Democratic sweep reshapes Asia’s economic outlook beyond market fears. As Trump weighs his next move, the region watches warily.
