In war, duration often outweighs intensity. The instinct to contain escalation—rooted in academic theories that ignore historical realities—can paradoxically prolong conflicts and magnify their horrors. The war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, is a stark testament to this dynamic. Efforts to restrain escalation have not shortened the war; they have stretched it into a grinding, ever more destructive stalemate.
This week, President Volodymyr Zelensky made an announcement that would have been unthinkable at the war's outset: Ukraine is now "de facto" closing Russian airspace to civilian aircraft. The statement, delivered in his evening address on September 1 and echoed in an English-language tweet, reflects a grim reality—escalation has become so routine that it barely registers. The international community, once alarmed by such threats, now largely shrugs.
The roots of this predicament lie in the early years of the conflict. The Biden administration's cautious approach, aimed at avoiding direct confrontation with Moscow, inadvertently shielded Russia from consequences and allowed the war to fester. As I noted in analyses in January and May 2024, this policy of restraint did not prevent escalation; it merely delayed it, ensuring that when it came, it would be more violent and destructive.
Under President Donald Trump, the situation has deteriorated further. Washington's stance has become explicitly pro-Russian, with Trump describing Russia as a friend and Ukraine as an adversary. This shift has emboldened Moscow, which now escalates without fear of US retaliation. Ukraine, left to play catch-up, has resorted to asymmetric measures, such as threatening Russian civil aviation—a direct response to years of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and airspace.
The consequences are already visible. This week, Russia killed 38 civilians in a single airstrike, the deadliest such attack this year. On Friday night, Russian forces struck two major Ukrainian airfields. Both sides have also intensified targeted assassinations: Russia launched a drone at the office of Ukraine's military intelligence chief in central Kyiv, while Ukraine reportedly killed a Russian officer in St. Petersburg accused of war crimes.
A winter of reckoning
As autumn approaches, both sides are bracing for a brutal season. The coming months could prove decisive, especially if the winter is as harsh as the last. Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that up to 80% of pre-war power generation facilities have been damaged or destroyed. Zelensky has admitted that "virtually no intact thermal power plants" remain, and that Russian missiles are aimed at making civilian life unbearable.
Ukrainian civilians are already preparing for prolonged blackouts and heating outages. The psychological toll is immense, but so is the physical reality. The war has entered a phase where both sides possess greater long-range strike capabilities than ever before, enabling them to inflict damage far beyond the front lines.
This is the price of not helping Ukraine win quickly. By artificially restraining escalation, Western powers have inadvertently lengthened the war and made it more catastrophic. The idea that controlled escalation could lead to a quicker, less bloody resolution has proven illusory. Instead, we are witnessing a conflict that grows more savage with each passing month.
General Mykhailo Drapatyi, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, recently issued a new set of principles for the Ukrainian military. They emphasize adaptability, resilience, and the effective use of technology—principles that any modern army could learn from. Notably, they contain no calls for gimmicks like testosterone injections, a subtle rebuke to certain armchair strategists.
The international community, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, watches these developments with concern. The war's ripple effects—on energy prices, food security, and global alliances—are felt from Tokyo to New Delhi. As North Korea deepens its alliance with Russia, the conflict's reach extends even further. Meanwhile, Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries are beginning to cripple Moscow's fuel supply, a strategic shift that could alter the war's trajectory.
Yet, the path forward remains bleak. Both Ukraine and Russia are locked in a cycle of escalation that neither can break without significant external intervention. The fall and winter will test the endurance of the Ukrainian people and the resolve of their allies. As the war grinds on, the world must confront an uncomfortable truth: the longer it lasts, the more horrific it becomes.
