Russia's failure to achieve a swift victory in Ukraine is provoking an unusual wave of public discontent, with critics pointing to both stalled military progress and mounting economic costs as evidence of President Vladimir Putin's faltering leadership. The conflict, now in its third year, has brought the war's realities to regions previously considered safe, as low-flying armed drones strike oil depots and industrial facilities deep inside Russian territory.
Military analysts and journalists have been among the most vocal. Andrei Soldatov, a Russian military journalist, attributed the setbacks to arrogance and a flawed assessment of Ukraine's resilience. "The main mistake was that the intelligence services believed that Ukrainian state institutions were weak and corrupt," Soldatov said. "Nor did they anticipate the reaction of Ukrainian society in general." Yuri Kotenok, a prominent war correspondent, echoed this sentiment, writing that "our level of planning, intelligence, and coordination is still far below par."
Public Dissatisfaction Spreads
Discontent has moved beyond expert circles into the broader public. Victoria Bonya, an exiled former reality TV star, posted an 18-minute Instagram video that garnered 30 million views, directly addressing Putin. "The people are afraid of you, artists are afraid, governors are afraid," she said, listing grievances from internet blackouts and high prices to floods in western Russia and oil pollution in the Black Sea. Two businesswomen later went online to lament the collapse of their retail outlets due to shortages and weak consumer demand.
Putin's response was unusually sympathetic, though he deflected blame onto officials. A report by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin noted that "his reaction was unprecedented, both in terms of the high-level feedback to a grassroots initiative and also for his careful criticism of the security services, which Putin usually shields from any blame." The analysis concluded that "finding himself losing his balance, Putin is trying to get back on even ground."
These internal rumblings have fueled speculation about a potential coup, though most observers consider such a scenario unlikely. They attribute the regime's stability to either a passive populace or fear of repression. Authorities have moved quickly to suppress dissent: in Kaliningrad, police removed the charred remains of an anti-war activist who set himself on fire, and scattered his spray-painted message "No to War" in the snow, according to the independent outlet Important Stories.
Kremlin paranoia appears to be intensifying. Putin has ordered electronic surveillance in the homes of close associates, and visitors to Kremlin offices undergo double screening. Household staff—including photographers, chefs, and housekeepers—have been told to avoid public transport for fear of attack or kidnapping. Tensions among top officials are also surfacing: at a recent meeting, Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov accused intelligence agencies of failing to prevent assassination attempts on senior officers, while Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov and National Guard Director Viktor Zolotov pushed back, arguing that protection is the Defense Ministry's responsibility.
Reports indicate that Putin and his family have stopped using their usual country residences near Moscow and at Valdai, though the reasons remain unclear. As the war drags on, the cracks in Russia's political facade are becoming harder to ignore, even if the immediate threat to Putin's rule appears contained.
