Iranian strikes on commercial vessels attempting to transit through Omani territorial waters have reignited a dangerous tit-for-tat spiral in the Gulf. The United States responded by revoking waivers that allowed Iranian oil exports and launching two nights of airstrikes against targets in southern Iran. Tehran retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones aimed at US installations in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Neither Washington nor Tehran appears eager to escalate into full-scale war. But the current ceasefire's boundaries of acceptable violence are untenable for Gulf states that urgently need to return to normal commerce. The Trump administration's strategy of coercive pressure alone—punitive airpower aimed at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—will not persuade the IRGC to surrender what it treats as a strategic spoil of war.
Under the memorandum of understanding now framing the crisis, Iran has 60 days to guarantee freedom of navigation. But Tehran will only do so on its own terms, risking a situation where it gains undue influence over how Gulf states conduct global business. As Iran's Strait of Hormuz gambit faces rising regional pushback, the path forward requires more than firepower from either side.
The IRGC's Strategic Calculus
For the IRGC, the Strait of Hormuz has become a token of victory—a symbol of authority and prestige that transcends mere revenue. Iran wants recognition as the legitimate master of the strait, a status neither Washington nor the Gulf can afford to grant. The Iranian attacks are not random pressure; they are a deliberate response to Oman's attempt to open a southern corridor in its sovereign waters, an alternative passage that would loosen Iran's grip. The IRGC struck vessels using that corridor to draw a clear red line.
This exposes a rift within the Iranian regime. Pragmatists understand that the real prize is a return to global markets, which endless confrontation will prevent. But the IRGC, actively engaged in maritime aggression, sees a toll scheme as quick revenue for its own budget, while talks leading to sanctions relief could drag on for years. The Gulf must therefore offer a credible pathway where restraint today leads to relief tomorrow, so Tehran's leadership can convince hardliners that patience pays more than pressure.
Some critics argue Iran will simply take relief while continuing disruption. The credulous reading—that money buys compliance—misreads a regime where prestige outranks revenue. The cynical reading—that Iran will never commit to a deal—misreads pragmatists who know continued sanctions are a dead end. The truth lies in between: Iran will negotiate indefinitely and commit to nothing because ambiguity is cheap. The task, then, is to make ambiguity expensive.
Gulf States Must Take the Lead
The Gulf states cannot tolerate a permanent change in the status of the strait. Limbo is as unaffordable as war. For Washington, resolving this issue offers an exit from a bombing campaign that will never deliver its desired result. As Iran drags the US into a protracted conflict, Gulf states must build their own capacity now: a durable coalition anchored by Qatar's diplomacy and Oman's role as guardian of the strait, multiplied by shared Gulf maritime capabilities to escort vessels and keep waters drone- and mine-free.
Strategically, this requires a Saudi-led joint security framework between the Gulf and Iran, built around a non-aggression pact and deconfliction channels. For too long, the Gulf has delegated security to Washington, which has become an unreliable and often toothless tiger in the face of Iranian resistance. Donald Trump's impulsive statecraft has dragged the Gulf into escalation spirals where Kuwait and Bahrain become collateral damage.
The greatest incentive the Gulf can provide to dissuade Iran from its self-destructive trajectory is a credible route to financial compensation at the end of a diplomatic process. A Gulf acknowledgement of Iran's status in an equitable security framework, combined with the prospect of a windfall down the line, will do more than protracted remote warfare from the air against an enemy with a high threshold of pain. As Iran's toll plan faces legal and practical hurdles, the Gulf must ensure that keeping the strait open becomes Tehran's own path of least resistance.
