New investigative reporting by Seymour Hersh has cast a spotlight on a US strategy that goes beyond conventional sanctions. Dubbed "Operation Economic Outcast," the plan reportedly aims not at Iran's clerical leadership, but at the financial backbone of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The goal, according to US officials cited by Hersh, is to strip away the allegiance of IRGC soldiers and weaken their morale to the point where a people's revolution could take place without a bloody crackdown.
The IRGC is no ordinary military force. It controls vast swaths of Iran's economy, including foreign trade and, crucially, oil and gas production. By squeezing the money flowing to the IRGC through the global financial system, Washington hopes to turn the guardsmen into a source of instability rather than a pillar of the regime. As one US official told Hersh, IRGC members are "work for themselves and are not with the religious people."
The economic strain is already visible. Hersh quotes an unnamed US official saying the IRGC is running out of money. A well-informed Israeli source told him that some IRGC members have gone months without pay and have resorted to begging neighbors for food. If true, this is a remarkable development for an organization that has long been the regime's most loyal and well-funded enforcer.
Iran's broader economy is in dire straits. Satellite intelligence cited by Hersh shows long lines at gas stations, with customers limited to five liters per fill-up. Iran's limited refining capacity means it cannot easily convert its crude oil wealth into usable fuel. The combination of shortages, inflation, and unemployment has brought the country to what many would consider the edge of revolution. Yet the regime has survived similar crises before, often by unleashing the very security forces that are now reportedly struggling to make ends meet.
The key question is whether the IRGC's financial woes will translate into a loss of will to shoot protesters. Historically, the IRGC has shown no hesitation in using lethal force to suppress dissent, as seen in the 2009 Green Movement and the 2019 protests over fuel price hikes. But if its members are themselves suffering, their loyalty may be tested. As one US official involved in the plan put it, "The ultimate goal is to strip away the allegiance of its soldiers and weaken its morale to the point that a people's revolution could take place, without a bloody IRGC-led massacre."
However, the path from economic pain to political upheaval is far from straightforward. Iranians have endured decades of sanctions and mismanagement, yet the regime has proven remarkably resilient. The security apparatus is not monolithic; the IRGC's economic interests are deeply intertwined with the state, and its leadership has shown a willingness to adapt. Moreover, the opposition is fragmented, and the memory of past crackdowns looms large.
There are also external factors at play. The US has been escalating pressure, including drawing Iranian rebukes over a map of the Strait of Hormuz and seeking billions for potential war costs. Meanwhile, Iran has signaled it has incentives to escalate, which could further destabilize the region. For Asian observers, the implications are significant: any upheaval in Iran would affect energy markets, shipping lanes, and the broader Middle East, with ripple effects across the Indo-Pacific.
Can economic pain overcome fear?
The Iranian people have shown remarkable courage in the past, but they also know the cost of defiance. The regime's surveillance and repression apparatus is extensive, and the IRGC's Basij militia operates in every neighborhood. Even if the IRGC's rank-and-file are disaffected, the leadership retains the means to crush dissent. The question is whether the leadership itself is willing to order a massacre when its own soldiers are hungry.
Some analysts argue that the US strategy is a long shot. Economic sanctions have rarely toppled governments, and they often strengthen nationalist sentiment against foreign interference. In Iran, the regime has long portrayed itself as the defender of the nation against external enemies, and the US pressure may play into that narrative. Yet the current situation is different: the regime's own mismanagement, compounded by sanctions, has created a level of suffering that even the most loyal citizens may find hard to bear.
In Tehran and other cities, Iranians have turned to art and memes as a coping mechanism, a sign of both resilience and frustration. But whether that frustration can be channeled into a coordinated uprising remains uncertain. The opposition is leaderless, and the internet is heavily censored. The regime has also learned from past protests, deploying more sophisticated tactics to prevent mass mobilization.
For now, the US plan appears to be a bet on the Iranian people's desperation. It is a high-risk gamble that could either lead to a historic change or a brutal crackdown that further entrenches the regime. As the world watches, the people of Iran are caught in the middle, bearing the costs of a war that is not of their making.
