Israel's opposition parties appeared to have won enough Knesset seats in Tuesday's election to end Benjamin Netanyahu's four-year tenure, but forming a government remains a complex puzzle. With about 86% of ballots counted, Netanyahu's far-right religious bloc is projected to drop to 53 seats, eight short of a majority. The opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, is projected to win 48 seats, but it would likely need support from parties representing Israel's Arab minority, which won a record 19 seats thanks to unprecedented Arab voter turnout.
The mobilization of Palestinian citizens of Israel was described as a "truly historic development" by Ameer Fakhoury, an analyst at the Van Leer Jerusalem Institute. "They went to the polls in extraordinary numbers to confront a political leadership responsible for what they regard as the gravest crimes against their people: devastation in Gaza, ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, and years of persecution and intimidation at home," he said. "History has placed Palestinian citizens of Israel in an extraordinary position. Having mobilized first and foremost to protect their own people, they may now also help rescue Jewish Israelis from their country's destructive trajectory."
Coalition arithmetic
The Arab parties now hold significant leverage in the negotiations to form a new government. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, signaled willingness to compromise, saying his priority was to "bring down Benjamin Netanyahu" along with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. However, Abbas's seven seats alone would not be enough for a majority. The larger Joint List, a left-wing Arab coalition, has also offered to back Eisenkot's government. Its parliamentary leader, Ahmad Tibi, has demanded concessions including commitments to fight crime in Arab communities, end home demolitions, halt racist incitement, and offer a "political horizon" for Palestinian self-determination. He framed the choice as "either Bibi or Tibi."
Eisenkot has made ousting Netanyahu a central goal, but he has ruled out working with Arab parties unless they recognize Israel as a Jewish state, accept conscription of Palestinian citizens into the military, and denounce Hamas as a terrorist organization. Amjad Shbita, general secretary of Hadash, the largest faction in the Joint List, rejected these preconditions. "Laying down conditions won't work with the Joint List," he said. "We will negotiate as equals because we need each other."
Internal pressure within Eisenkot's bloc complicates matters. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman have rejected a government dependent on Arab parties. Liberman has urged Likud members to defect and form a "true" right-wing government, potentially peeling away hawks opposed to Netanyahu's concessions to ultra-Orthodox parties, such as draft exemptions for yeshiva students. On the other side, Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, has urged Eisenkot to cooperate with Arab parties. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120. Sixty-five is more than 55. That's how Israeli democracy works. Period," Golan wrote on social media. "The reality must teach us one resounding lesson: We have no future here if we don't stop being afraid. And if we don't stop with the racism. We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes."
The election results reflect deep divisions in Israeli society, with Arab voters braving racist incitement and suppression tactics to cast their ballots. The outcome could reshape the region's politics, as Netanyahu's policies in Gaza and the West Bank have drawn international criticism, including UK sanctions that failed to suspend weapons transfers. Meanwhile, US support for Israel is eroding amid a generational shift in American opinion.
As negotiations continue, the possibility of a "national unity government" remains on the table, but the path forward is uncertain. The coming days will determine whether Israel's opposition can overcome its differences and form a coalition that ends Netanyahu's rule, or whether the country faces yet another election in its ongoing political deadlock, as seen in previous rounds.
