As the United States finds itself embroiled in two costly wars and an oil crisis not seen in decades, Chinese leader Xi Jinping may be watching from the sidelines with quiet satisfaction. The parallel to Samuel Beckett's Waiting for Godot is apt: the world, and particularly Washington, is waiting for Xi to make a move, but he seems content to let events unfold.
America's Distractions
In Ukraine, Washington seeks a compromise with Moscow, while in the Middle East, it aims to pressure Tehran, which backs militant groups and threatens oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. These conflicts have driven down President Donald Trump's approval ratings, raising the stakes for the November 3 midterm elections. A Democratic victory could lead to a contentious political battle or an emboldened opposition, either way draining America's focus from foreign policy—including its rivalry with China.
Xi has little incentive to help resolve America's problems. Mediation risks drawing China into conflicts it did not start, and a successful resolution could free Washington to renew its hostile stance toward Beijing. Instead, by allowing American missteps to play out, Xi can approach the 2027 party congress with confidence, potentially hailed as the first Chinese leader to corner the Western superpower—a symbolic end to the 'century of humiliation' that has shaped Chinese education and policy for generations.
A Fragile Truce
The recent Trump-Xi meeting in Washington, following a May summit in Beijing, signals a truce that may hold until the 2027 party congress, or even the 2028 US presidential election. This pause, however, is delicate. One key issue is the reopening of military dialogue, which the US wants to establish codes of conduct for encounters in the air and sea. China has resisted, fearing such codes would legitimize American presence in areas Beijing considers its exclusive domain.
Japan, a leading voice in the 'anti-PRC' front, watched the summit closely. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited Washington the day before Xi's arrival and spoke with Trump immediately after the meeting. The summit was effectively multilateral, with Washington considering the concerns of its Asian allies, particularly Japan.
What Lies Ahead
The US has abandoned its earlier tariff-centric approach, but a coherent long-term strategy toward China remains unclear. Will Washington treat China as a normal trading partner or pursue the decoupling Trump promised in 2016? For its part, China faces a choice: integrate further into the global system or attempt to build an alternative order.
Iran is an early test. China has stated it opposes a nuclear-armed Iran and wants the straits reopened, but the Houthis, Iranian proxies, control Bab el-Mandeb, threatening Saudi Arabia and global oil supplies. China's efforts to detach from the dollar-based SWIFT system through its own CIPS payment network are a step toward financial independence, but unhooking the yuan from the dollar would create new challenges.
The next two years will reveal whether this truce holds or gives way to a harsher conflict. As Congress stalls on Iran war authorization, the region's stability hangs in the balance. Meanwhile, Japan's Takaichi navigates budget and defense challenges, and US Congress steps in as South Korea's conservatives retreat on alliance issues. The Indo-Pacific remains a complex web of alliances and rivalries, and Xi's patience may prove his greatest asset.
