The long-dormant conflict in Yemen has reignited with a sudden offensive by Houthi rebels, who have captured the Red Sea port of Mocha and several islands from Yemeni government forces in recent weeks. The advance places the Houthis within striking distance of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime corridor linking Asia and Europe.
For Saudi Arabia, Yemen's northern neighbor, the Houthi push southward is a triple threat. First, it is a military defeat for the Saudi-backed forces that have been fighting the Houthis since 2015. Second, it tightens the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea coast, which could further restrict Saudi oil exports—especially since the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February 2026. Third, the Houthis are Iran's closest allies, meaning Tehran now has the potential to control two of the world's most critical oil chokepoints. By June, the Bab al-Mandeb was carrying roughly 7% of global oil supplies.
From ceasefire to renewed conflict
The renewed fighting ends a ceasefire that had largely held since 2022. The Houthis, a movement born in the 1990s to represent Yemen's Zaydi Shia Muslim minority, had previously fought against longtime president Ali Abdullah Saleh. After Saleh was forced from power in 2012 following mass protests, the Houthis expanded from their northern stronghold and seized the capital, Sana'a, in 2014.
In March 2015, Saudi Arabia launched a full-scale military intervention to restore the internationally recognized government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, Saleh's successor. The war quickly bogged down into a stalemate, with neither side able to achieve a decisive victory. A ceasefire was agreed in April 2022, and although it lapsed in October of that year, both sides largely refrained from major escalation.
Hopes for a lasting peace were briefly raised in March 2023 when China brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, restoring diplomatic ties after a seven-year rupture. But the Houthis made clear they would not be bound by that agreement, rejecting any notion that normalization between Tehran and Riyadh should lead to a deal with the Houthis.
The conflict took a new turn after the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza. Houthi forces began firing missiles and drones at Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea, and in January 2024 they staged a large-scale attack on US Navy vessels. The US and UK responded with airstrikes, and in May 2025, a ceasefire mediated by Oman was agreed.
Escalation in July 2026
That relative calm unraveled in July 2026. On July 13, Saudi forces attacked Sana'a International Airport to prevent a plane carrying a Houthi delegation to the funeral of Iran's slain supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, from landing. The Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia claimed the flight violated Yemen's sovereignty. The Houthis retaliated with missile attacks on Saudi airports and declared a strict maritime embargo against Saudi vessels. Houthi official Yahya Saree announced an end to what he called the "de-escalation phase" of the conflict.
The recent rapid advance along Yemen's western coast has focused international attention on the Houthis' ability to disrupt global oil supplies. But the offensive also has profound implications for Yemen itself. It is a major setback for the Saudi-backed forces, which are far more fragmented than often assumed. These include forces loyal to Tareq Saleh, nephew of the late autocrat, as well as southern groups seeking autonomy and various tribal and local militias.
The Houthis now control a larger territory and population, raising questions about their capacity to hold onto these gains. In 2015, they briefly captured areas in the south, including Aden, Abyan, and Lahj, but were pushed back by government forces and resistance fighters. The pattern could repeat.
Reports indicate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has asked the US to launch airstrikes against the Houthis, but Washington has so far declined. The request underscores Riyadh's growing alarm as the Iran conflict spreads beyond its original theaters. The Houthi advance is a stark reminder that the war between the US, Israel, and Iran is not confined to the Middle East's traditional battlefields—it is now reshaping the Red Sea and the global energy trade. As the threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait grows, the risk of global inflation and supply disruptions rises. The Houthis' maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, declared in July, is already affecting shipping lanes. And with the US Congress stalling on war authorization, the conflict shows no sign of ending. For Yemen, the renewed fighting is a humanitarian catastrophe in the making. For the wider region, it is a dangerous sign that the Iran war's fire is spreading.
