Five years after seizing Kabul in August 2021, the Taliban's grip on Afghanistan remains as ultra-extremist as ever. The group has shown no willingness to temper its hardline ideology or adopt a more humane and inclusive approach to governance. Instead, it has tightened its repressive, misogynistic, and regressive rule, while continuing to host a range of like-minded violent extremist groups. The United Nations has repeatedly warned of a resurgence of terrorism emanating from Afghan soil.
The Taliban now faces mounting security challenges from within its own ranks and from a cluster of armed resistance forces. Its relationship with its former patron, Pakistan, has completely broken down, with Islamabad's defense minister declaring an "open war" on the group earlier this year. This breakdown, coupled with the Taliban's internal fractures, has pushed Afghanistan closer to the edge.
Broken Promises and Hardened Rule
Prior to the fall of Kabul, Taliban leaders signaled they had changed. They claimed to have learned from their draconian rule from 1996 until the US-led intervention in late 2001. They pledged to respect the rights of women and girls to education and work, offered amnesty to those who had served the previous US-backed government, and promised an inclusive governing system. They also vowed to ensure Afghanistan would never again become a haven for terrorism.
None of these promises has been kept. If anything, the Taliban has only deepened its brand of Islam, which is not practiced anywhere else in the Muslim world. The group has also exploited regional and global geopolitical rivalries to govern without popular legitimacy or international recognition. Only Russia has formally recognized the Taliban government, but others, including China, have expanded diplomatic contacts and pursued economic ties with Kabul. Taliban leaders were even invited to Brussels to meet with European Union officials over the outflow of Afghan refugees—a visit that drew sharp criticism from rights groups.
Millions of Afghans now live outside the country, most in neighboring Iran and Pakistan. About half a million have applied for asylum in the EU since the Taliban's return, and many host countries are eager to deport them. Inside Afghanistan, most citizens face unprecedented poverty, mass unemployment, spiraling inflation, and severe shortages of basic goods. It is not uncommon for families to sell a child to survive.
Threats on Multiple Fronts
The situation has worsened with US President Donald Trump's decision to shutter the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and Pakistan's closure of transit roads into Afghanistan. Washington has pursued an ambiguous policy toward the Taliban, demanding the return of the Bagram airbase and US$7 billion in military assets left behind in 2021, while maintaining dialogue with the militia. The UN has indirectly channeled billions of dollars from the US government to the Taliban's coffers over the past five years.
Pakistan's turn against the Taliban stems from the group's support for the Pakistani Taliban (Tahreek-I Taliban Pakistan, or TTP). Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing TTP members with a base for cross-border attacks. In retaliation, Pakistan has launched airstrikes on Afghan territory, causing significant civilian casualties. Islamabad has also hosted meetings with some of the Taliban's opponents, signaling a more aggressive posture.
This comes amid increased fighting in the northeastern province of Badakhshan, where followers of dissident commander Juma Khan Fateh are clashing with the Taliban over resources and local grievances. Senior Taliban officials have been assassinated in the region. Several armed opposition groups are active, though they remain fragmented. Some reports suggest the resistance is expanding, but these groups have a long way to go before they can demonstrate sufficient coordination and a united national agenda. The Taliban is more deeply entrenched and better equipped than its opponents.
Most Afghans would welcome the Taliban's departure, but for the opposition to be seen as a viable alternative, it must build trust with the people and offer hope for the future. The history of Afghanistan shows how difficult that has been to achieve. As the Taliban's Pashtun dominance widens ethnic rifts, the path to stability remains elusive. The country's collapse would have profound implications for the wider region, from Russia and China's strategic calculations to the security of South Asia and beyond.
