Russia's war against Ukraine is often framed as a great power conflict, but this narrative misreads the reality. The conflict is better understood as a confrontation between middle powers, with the United States and China acting from the sidelines. Russia, despite its Soviet-era legacies, is no longer a great power.
Russia's Great Power Complex
Russia has not been a great power since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It retains a permanent UN Security Council seat and a large nuclear arsenal, but its economy is only slightly larger than South Korea's and smaller than Canada's or Brazil's. Its military, with 1.1 million active-duty personnel, consumes 7.5% of GDP—$190 billion in 2025—yet Europe's NATO members collectively spend $559 billion, nearly three times as much.
President Vladimir Putin went to war to restore Russia's status, but the army failed to overwhelm Ukraine's 880,000-strong force. Four and a half years later, about 80% of Ukraine remains under Kyiv's control, and Moscow has resorted to air strikes on civilians—a desperate strategy with few historical precedents.
Ukraine's Rise as a Middle Power
Ukraine has transformed from a minor power into a diplomatic and military middle power at Europe's heart. It is a world leader in drone production, and President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent drone diplomacy in the Middle East secured ten-year deals with three countries. Ukraine is also advancing toward European Union membership, as detailed in Ukraine's EU Path: Security Innovation Meets Political Resistance.
This war is not a proxy conflict between great powers. China and the US both sought to avoid escalation. China became Russia's key economic enabler, buying cheap energy and filling export gaps, but it refrained from delivering weapons and publicly supported Ukraine's sovereignty. The US, under both Biden and Trump, has been hesitant, delaying weapons deliveries and attaching conditions.
The conflict reflects a global realignment toward a multipolar world where middle powers like Australia and Canada are taking on larger roles. The US, under President Donald Trump, has yet to fully grasp this shift, as noted in US-Europe Rift Over Belarus Policy Hands Putin a Strategic Opening.
Russia's international influence is waning. It has lost allies in Syria, Venezuela, and Hungary, and Europe has turned hostile to its energy exports. Meanwhile, Ukraine's resilience and innovation have made it a central player in Europe's self-assertion, as seen in the cost asymmetry reshaping warfare.
This war is a middle power struggle, not a great power game. Ukraine's rise and Russia's decline are reshaping the European order, with implications for the Indo-Pacific as well.
