President Donald Trump celebrated the end of the US-Israel conflict with Iran by urging global shipping to resume operations through the Strait of Hormuz. In a post on his social media platform, he wrote: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Yet the reality of reopening one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints is far more complex.
Oil markets have responded positively, with Brent crude falling below US$80 a barrel to US$78.96 for the first time since early March. This drop reflects cautious optimism that the agreement will hold, despite Trump having claimed a peace deal roughly 40 times before. The US Navy has stated its blockade will remain in place until the formal signing on June 19.
Gradual Recovery Ahead
Even after the deal is signed, analysts expect it will take at least six months for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-conflict levels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments could take much longer, largely due to extensive damage inflicted on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex during the war. Before the conflict, that facility produced 77 million tonnes of LNG annually—nearly 19% of global output. QatarEnergy has confirmed that 12.8 million tonnes of capacity will remain offline for three to five years.
The strait carries about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, 19% of refined petroleum products, and roughly one-fifth of global LNG. It also handles a significant share of chemical shipments, particularly fertilisers. The conditions for reopening remain ambiguous. Iran’s Mehr state news agency reported that the strait would reopen within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements,” but no official text of the draft agreement has been published.
There could be a near-term supply boost from roughly 60 tankers loaded with crude oil that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf since February. Some of these vessels can carry up to 2 million barrels of oil—equivalent to about two days of Australian consumption. However, a larger number of ships waiting outside the strait will need to enter and load, a process that maritime tracking data suggests will take time.
Safety and Infrastructure Concerns
Since the announcement on Sunday, traffic through the strait has barely changed. Shippers remain cautious, and for good reason: 38 vessels were hit during the conflict, 24 by Iranian forces, four by the US, and the rest by unidentified actors. Mines laid by Iran also pose a lingering hazard. Mixed signals from Tehran and Washington add to the uncertainty. Iran has indicated it will charge fees for passage, while Trump has said the strait will be toll-free—a discrepancy yet to be resolved.
The war caused extensive damage to energy infrastructure across the region, with more than 80 facilities attacked. Fatih Birol, executive chairman of the International Energy Agency (IEA), noted that recovery will be gradual as oil fields, refineries, and pipelines across the Persian Gulf have been affected. The United Arab Emirates, the third-largest oil exporter using the strait after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, has said it will take until 2027 to restore full oil flows, even with an immediate end to the conflict.
Iranian oil producers stand to benefit from a US waiver on oil sanctions expected in the deal, allowing Tehran to sell crude to more customers. However, Israeli strikes damaged parts of Iran’s South Pars gas field and the nearby Asaluyeh processing hub. Iran has restarted production at three offshore platforms in the South Pars field but has not specified how long repairs will take.
For Australia, the conflict has been manageable. The IEA initially called it the largest supply disruption in oil market history, but Australia has imported record volumes of diesel, boosting stocks for trucking, mining, and farming. Diesel accounts for more than half of the country’s daily oil consumption. Australia has remained at level 2 of the National Fuel Security Plan, avoiding mandatory fuel restrictions.
If the peace deal holds, energy users worldwide will welcome the return of stable flows. But if the agreement falters and the strait closes again, prices could rebound sharply, reigniting concerns about shortages. For now, the region watches warily as the details of the deal unfold.
Related coverage: Trump and Netanyahu at Odds Over Iran Deal as Lebanon Stalemate Deepens and How Iran Turned the Tables on Trump and Israel in the 2026 War.
